Status: research draft. No index based on live news is active. The 0–100 score is not a statistical probability of war.
Monitor documented conditions that may increase or decrease the risk of international military escalation involving major powers directly.
Candidate formula: I = sum of five dimension scores (0–100), each multiplied by its weight. Scoring rubrics, historical calibration and sensitivity tests are still missing: do not use this formula to publish real values.
Each event records date, region, actors, category, source link, verification status, rationale and revision history. Duplicate articles are not independent confirmations. An official statement proves that a statement was made, not necessarily that its claims are true. Announced summits without verifiable outcomes do not automatically change the index. Corrections and retractions must remain traceable.
Middle East and Gulf, Eastern Europe, East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, Africa and other emerging crises. Countries do not receive fixed weights; events and potential international escalation pathways are assessed.
Green 0–24, yellow 25–49, red 50–94, purple 95–100. These thresholds are unvalidated and are not official alerts. The 24-hour, 7-day and 30-day arrows show historical changes, not forecasts.
UN, NATO and government documents and statements; Reuters, AP and AFP reporting; ACLED, UCDP and SIPRI data; and negotiation records. Inclusion is subject to checks on licensing, access, independence and update frequency. Every published news item must show date, source and original URL.
Define scoring rubrics, avoid double counting, document crisis persistence, validate against historical cases and run an unpublished observation period. Add human review for disputed or exceptional events.